Ben-Gvir’s Exit Raises Tough Questions: Could Netanyahu Face Elections in Spring?

Ben-Gvir’s Exit Raises Questions: Could Netanyahu Face Elections in Spring?
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s decision to leave Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition has triggered speculation about potential elections and the stability of Israel’s government.
This political move, tied to concerns over Hamas’ lingering influence in Gaza, reflects deep divisions within the coalition.
Bar-Ilan University politics professor Zeev Hanin explained the root of the unrest, stating that right-wing members of the coalition are frustrated because the stated objectives of the Gaza operation—to rescue hostages and dismantle Hamas—are not yet fully realized.
Dissident ministers are particularly critical of the current ceasefire, which they see as premature.
Despite this political turmoil, public opinion offers a contrasting perspective.
“At least two-thirds of Israelis, judging by the polls, are satisfied at this stage with the return of the hostages and see it as a victory in this war,” Hanin noted.
The prevailing sentiment is to focus on bringing the hostages home now and deal with Hamas later.
Netanyahu’s Coalition Still Standing
Even with Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich breaking away, Netanyahu’s coalition retains 63 of the 120 seats in the Knesset. While this weakens his government, it is not enough to bring it down outright.
Hanin believes elections are on the horizon but not immediately.
“Springtime elections are likely, but they won’t occur before Netanyahu feels it’s politically advantageous to dissolve the Knesset,” he said.
If Netanyahu’s decisions, including the Gaza ceasefire, yield political benefits, he might use these developments to time elections favorably.
Hanin also speculated that agreements with former U.S. President Donald Trump could shape Netanyahu’s actions, allowing concessions in Gaza to appear moderate and pragmatic.
As Israel watches these developments unfold, the political future remains uncertain.
While Netanyahu’s government holds together for now, cracks in the coalition suggest that elections may be a matter of when, not if.
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