Pivotal Shift Ahead: USA-Nigeria Relations Hang in the Balance as Election Approaches

[keypoints]

• The outcome of the upcoming US presidential election, between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, is expected to significantly impact USA-Nigeria relations, with Nigerians divided in their support for the candidates.
• Historically, US-Nigeria relations have fluctuated with the ruling party in the US, with Democratic presidents perceived as more supportive of immigration and Africa’s interests, while Republicans have focused on trade and investment.
• A Trump presidency may lead to increased trade and military support for Nigeria, while a Harris presidency could prioritize democracy and human rights, potentially enhancing development aid and impacting immigration policies for the Nigerian Diaspora.

[/keypoints]

Pivotal Shift Ahead: USA-Nigeria Relations Hang in the Balance as Election Approaches

As the 2024 US presidential election draws near, the future of USA-Nigeria relations is poised for a significant change, depending on whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump emerge victorious.

This election not only matters to Americans but also captures the attention of citizens and governments worldwide.

Although the Nigerian government has never officially endorsed a US presidential candidate, many Nigerians see parallels between US political parties and their own.

This has led to a division among Nigerians, with some favouring Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party and others supporting Donald Trump of the Republican Party. The outcomes of this election could reshape the dynamics of USA-Nigeria relations.

Historically, US-Nigeria relations have varied with the ruling party in the US.

Many Nigerians perceive Democratic presidents as more supportive of immigration and Africa’s interests, while Republican presidents are often viewed as favouring trade and investment. Although this perception lacks concrete data, it is widely held.

Under Republican leadership, US-Nigeria relations have been characterised by targeted engagement.

During Ronald Reagan’s presidency from 1981 to 1989, relations remained cordial, although Reagan focused more on global anti-communism than on bilateral ties with Nigeria.

George H.W. Bush, in office from 1989 to 1993, increased engagement with Africa, supporting Nigeria’s democratic transition.

His son, George W. Bush, further boosted US aid to Africa, enhancing Nigeria’s health and development sectors significantly. Notably, Bush became the first Republican president to visit Nigeria in 2003.

Donald Trump’s presidency, however, posed challenges. His anti-immigration policies and derogatory remarks about Nigeria offended many. Yet Trump recognised Nigeria’s importance in Africa.

His first phone call with an African leader as president was with Nigeria’s Muhammadu Buhari in 2017. Buhari was also the first African leader invited to the White House, though Trump’s negative comments about him left a sour note.

While the US attempted to block the appointments of Akinwunmi Adeshina and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala to key international positions, it also lifted restrictions on Nigeria’s acquisition of military equipment to combat insurgency.

The Nigerian government adopted a less confrontational stance on human rights issues, as Trump’s administration generally refrained from meddling in Nigeria’s internal affairs. In 2020, the State Department and USAID allocated $450 million in bilateral support for Nigeria.

Democratic administrations have also engaged with Nigeria significantly. The Bill Clinton administration supported Nigeria’s democratic transition but faltered in defending it when the 1993 presidential election was annulled.

The African Growth and Opportunity Act aimed to enhance trade with Africa, but Nigeria did not feel its economic impact strongly.

Under Barack Obama from 2009 to 2017, the focus was on economic and security cooperation, alongside promoting democracy in Africa. However, Obama’s administration is remembered in Nigeria for blocking the purchase of critical military hardware.

In 2022, the Biden administration committed over $1.2 billion in assistance to Nigeria, emphasising economic development, humanitarian aid, health, education, and social services. It also partnered with Nigeria on security and climate initiatives.

Looking ahead, Nigeria’s prospects vary widely based on who wins the presidency.

A Trump presidency might lead to increased trade and investment in key sectors like oil and gas if Nigeria aligns with US economic interests. Trump’s history of military support could enhance regional security in West Africa.

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In contrast, a Harris presidency would likely emphasise democracy and human rights. This could result in conditions for military aid to Nigeria while potentially boosting development assistance focused on anti-corruption, economic growth, climate action, and global health.

Harris’s approach to immigration might also positively impact the Nigerian Diaspora and youth looking to study or work in the US, despite the Democrats’ recent shift towards stricter immigration policies.

In conclusion, the upcoming election holds significant implications for the future of USA-Nigeria relations. Long-term systemic changes might be encouraged by Harris’ presidency, whereas Trump might put more emphasis on economic transactions and security.

As the world watches, both Nigerians and Americans await the election outcome with bated breath.